Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 56¢ · $22K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 55.5¢

-15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares30,599

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares15,957

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1581h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

42 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AllByMyseIfCTR	Noavg 16.9¢	$2.2K	$5.9K	+$3.6K	65% 671-357 (1028)
BU BurstedBubbleCTR	Noavg 44.4¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$34.94	— 4-5 (9)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 49.2¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$573.38	50% 415-417 (832)
DEGENKHAN	Yesavg 79.4¢	$4.9K	$3.4K	$-1.5K	66% 1107-565 (1672)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Noavg 46.5¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$32.38	54% 229-195 (424)
0X 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29	Yesavg 83.9¢	$1.0K	$694.46	-$346.07	71% 215-88 (303)
ME melonmanmCTR	Noavg 34.2¢	$578.41	$669.68	+$91.28	65% 527-282 (809)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 73.4¢	$562.52	$418.34	-$144.19	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
NadmiCTR	Noavg 13¢	$32.5	$110	+$77.5	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
libratus1	Yesavg 63.8¢	$111.73	$98.84	-$12.89	63% 642-372 (1014)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Noavg 56¢	$121.35	$95.31	-$26.04	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$81	$56	-$26.5	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$62.57	$55.79	-$7.29	32% 4495-9638 (14133)

AllByMyseIfCTR

Invested

$2,219.52

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

65%

671-357 (1028)

BurstedBubbleCTR

Invested

$4,233.79

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$34.94

Record

—

4-5 (9)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$3,600.73

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$573.38

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

DEGENKHAN

Yes

Invested

$4,910.1

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Invested

$2,570.36

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$32.38

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29

Yes

Invested

$1,040.52

Value

$694.46

PnL

-$346.07

Record

71%

215-88 (303)

melonmanmCTR

Invested

$578.41

Value

$669.68

PnL

+$91.28

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$562.52

Value

$418.34

PnL

-$144.19

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

NadmiCTR

Invested

$32.5

Value

$110

PnL

+$77.5

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

libratus1

Yes

Invested

$111.73

Value

$98.84

PnL

-$12.89

Record

63%

642-372 (1014)

Albert 1953CTR

Invested

$121.35

Value

$95.31

PnL

-$26.04

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$81

Value

$56

PnL

-$26.5

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.57

Value

$55.79

PnL

-$7.29

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1581h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

42 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.5%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.