Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $14K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 73.5¢

+17% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 74%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares17,523

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,088

Combined PnL-$835.38

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BMM-1	Noavg 71¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$149.51	95% 19-1 (20)
Warren-Buffett	Noavg 58¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$539.6	65% 862-465 (1327)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 51.6¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$536.07	54% 229-195 (424)
oieshfn345	Noavg 65.8¢	$743.76	$831.16	+$87.4	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Yesavg 46.4¢	$1.3K	$769.15	-$577.82	63% 353-204 (557)
TR troim	Noavg 51¢	$510	$735	+$225	36% 397-691 (1088)
alanhutton	Noavg 70.7¢	$707.14	$735	+$27.86	68% 335-158 (493)
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 54¢	$350.75	$477.41	+$126.66	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
TBill1	Noavg 68¢	$298.74	$368.96	+$70.22	45% 154-188 (342)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Noavg 57¢	$285	$367.5	+$82.5	45% 112-138 (250)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 48.7¢	$566.7	$310.98	-$255.72	58% 1250-888 (2138)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 67¢	$268	$294	+$26	56% 973-770 (1743)
Car	Noavg 66.7¢	$229.09	$252.84	+$23.76	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$89.63	$87.89	-$1.75	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.2¢	$21.4	$8.82	-$1.85	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

BMM-1

Invested

$4,245.96

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$149.51

Record

95%

19-1 (20)

Warren-Buffett

Invested

$2,023.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$539.6

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$1,299.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$536.07

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

oieshfn345

Invested

$743.76

Value

$831.16

PnL

+$87.4

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,346.96

Value

$769.15

PnL

-$577.82

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

troim

Invested

$510

Value

$735

PnL

+$225

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

alanhutton

Invested

$707.14

Value

$735

PnL

+$27.86

Record

68%

335-158 (493)

Albert 1953

Invested

$350.75

Value

$477.41

PnL

+$126.66

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

TBill1

Invested

$298.74

Value

$368.96

PnL

+$70.22

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Invested

$285

Value

$367.5

PnL

+$82.5

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$566.7

Value

$310.98

PnL

-$255.72

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$268

Value

$294

PnL

+$26

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Car

Invested

$229.09

Value

$252.84

PnL

+$23.76

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$89.63

Value

$87.89

PnL

-$1.75

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.4

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$1.85

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 74%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.