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Consensus PnL $56K · win rate 80% (2754–675, n=3429) · PM monthly #305 · holds 23 consensus positions
0xd84403ef...e6ea5908Polymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$56.4K
Record
2754W / 675L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 3429 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#429
Source
PM monthly #305
Trades
20
Markets
22,446
Volume
$5.3M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 23 on the consensus side (87%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETUp $452 · now 0¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ETDown $398 · now 0¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (44% of 30)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETUp $316 · now 0¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (60% of 28)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETUp $313 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (79% of 32)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ETUp $198 · now 100¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (81% of 30)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ETDown $180 · now 100¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (59% of 28)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETUp $166 · now 88¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (87% of 25)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ETDown $133 · now 100¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
Specialties
1,617 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 64¢- Crypto
+36 pts
side won 100% of 1616 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +37%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 100% of 47)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 100% of 236)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 100% of 694)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 640)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.