Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$41.54

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,119

Combined PnL+$257.47

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,298

Combined PnL-$299.01

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 87.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$81.48	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 84.9¢	$947.68	$1.0K	+$77.17	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 80.4¢	$331.05	$325.97	-$5.08	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 89.6¢	$355.31	$310.29	-$45.02	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 87.5¢	$232.93	$255.92	+$22.98	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 37.6¢	$158.4	—	-$158.4	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 82.2¢	$175.46	$180.01	+$4.55	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 84.6¢	$186.81	$168.51	-$18.3	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
machinelearned	Downavg 79.3¢	$159.04	$150	-$9.04	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$130.36	$120.41	-$8.95	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.7¢	$107.97	$120.41	+$12.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.7¢	$21.9	—	-$21.38
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52.9¢	$126.58	$239.13	+$112.55	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94.9¢	$97.92	$94	-$3.92	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 80.1¢	$84.36	$105.38	+$21.02	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$51.3	—	-$51.3	52% 804-728 (1532)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 97¢	$59.36	$60	+$0.64	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$27.99	—	-$27.99	51% 17198-16705 (33903)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$21.18	—	-$21.18	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 86.2¢	$26.2	$30	+$3.8	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$25.78	$30	+$4.22	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 5.2¢	$10.37	—	-$10.37	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 89.8¢	$23.07	$24.48	+$1.41	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 9.1¢	$17.64	—	-$7.41	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 52¢	$9.77	$18.79	+$9.02	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$6	—	-$6	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 11.8¢	$6.34	—	-$6.34	52% 91321-85769 (177090)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,032.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$81.48

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$947.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$77.17

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$331.05

Value

$325.97

PnL

-$5.08

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$355.31

Value

$310.29

PnL

-$45.02

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$232.93

Value

$255.92

PnL

+$22.98

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$158.4

Value

—

PnL

-$158.4

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$175.46

Value

$180.01

PnL

+$4.55

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$186.81

Value

$168.51

PnL

-$18.3

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$159.04

Value

$150

PnL

-$9.04

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.36

Value

$120.41

PnL

-$8.95

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Down$107.9789.7¢+$12.43

Up$21.99.7¢-$21.38

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$126.58

Value

$239.13

PnL

+$112.55

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$97.92

Value

$94

PnL

-$3.92

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$84.36

Value

$105.38

PnL

+$21.02

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Invested

$51.3

Value

—

PnL

-$51.3

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$59.36

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.64

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$27.99

Value

—

PnL

-$27.99

Record

51%

17198-16705 (33903)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$21.18

Value

—

PnL

-$21.18

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$26.2

Value

$30

PnL

+$3.8

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$25.78

Value

$30

PnL

+$4.22

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$10.37

Value

—

PnL

-$10.37

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$23.07

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$1.41

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

—

PnL

-$7.41

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$9.77

Value

$18.79

PnL

+$9.02

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$6.34

Value

—

PnL

-$6.34

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6c0c04a0...a66be3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793576400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.1K

+$81.48

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.0K

+$77.17

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $325.97

-$5.08

ply-pm0

Down — $310.29

-$45.02

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $255.92

+$22.98

wzbbb

CTR

Up — $0

-$158.4

FairValueMachine

Down — $180.01

+$4.55

GoodFallen

Down — $168.51

-$18.3

machinelearned

Down — $150

-$9.04

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.95

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