Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$135.51

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,832

Combined PnL+$322.98

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL-$187.47

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$29.19	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 73.8¢	$617.34	$617.5	+$0.16	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 81.6¢	$474.5	$427.68	-$46.82	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 88¢	$442.69	$415	-$27.69	51% 17198-16705 (33903)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79.1¢	$224.97	$232.25	+$7.28	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 47.5¢	$204.33	$429.98	+$225.65	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$164.5	$100	-$64.5	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
└ Down leg	Downavg 16¢	$80	—	-$80
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.5¢	$84.5	$100	+$15.5
FairValueMachine	Upavg 67.4¢	$150.39	$190	+$39.6	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 76.9¢	$129.9	$168.89	+$38.99	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$109.25	$134.34	+$25.09	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.3¢	$87.74	$134.34	+$46.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.3¢	$21.51	—	-$21.51
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 84¢	$138.89	$153.3	+$14.42	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 60.6¢	$133.06	—	-$133.06	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 86.7¢	$86.09	$93.87	+$7.78	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 84.2¢	$70.53	$68.2	-$2.33	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$45.65	$59.44	+$13.79	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$40.05	$50.56	+$10.51	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
VO Voz<$100	Upavg 79¢	$50	$63.29	+$13.29	77% 146-43 (189)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 73¢	$44.4	$60.82	+$16.42	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 23.1¢	$53.54	$30.09	-$23.45	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$23.77	$30.09	+$6.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.1¢	$29.76	—	-$29.76
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$33.52	$40.51	+$6.99	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 66¢	$40.8	$61.82	+$21.02	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 83¢	$29.5	$35.55	+$6.05	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$25.15	$30	+$4.85	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
RO Rock.San<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$18.36	$18.38	+$0.02	89% 12038-1416 (13454)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 87¢	$8.8	$10.11	+$1.31	52% 91321-85769 (177090)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,627.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$29.19

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$617.34

Value

$617.5

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$474.5

Value

$427.68

PnL

-$46.82

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

gansinimen

Invested

$442.69

Value

$415

PnL

-$27.69

Record

51%

17198-16705 (33903)

ply-pm0

Invested

$224.97

Value

$232.25

PnL

+$7.28

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$204.33

Value

$429.98

PnL

+$225.65

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$164.5

Value

$100

PnL

-$64.5

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Both legs:

Down$8016¢-$80

Up$84.584.5¢+$15.5

FairValueMachine

Invested

$150.39

Value

$190

PnL

+$39.6

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$129.9

Value

$168.89

PnL

+$38.99

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$109.25

Value

$134.34

PnL

+$25.09

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

Both legs:

Up$87.7465.3¢+$46.6

Down$21.5115.3¢-$21.51

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$138.89

Value

$153.3

PnL

+$14.42

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$133.06

Value

—

PnL

-$133.06

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$86.09

Value

$93.87

PnL

+$7.78

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$70.53

Value

$68.2

PnL

-$2.33

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$45.65

Value

$59.44

PnL

+$13.79

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$40.05

Value

$50.56

PnL

+$10.51

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

Voz<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$63.29

PnL

+$13.29

Record

77%

146-43 (189)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$44.4

Value

$60.82

PnL

+$16.42

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.54

Value

$30.09

PnL

-$23.45

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Up$23.7779¢+$6.32

Down$29.7623.1¢-$29.76

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$33.52

Value

$40.51

PnL

+$6.99

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$61.82

PnL

+$21.02

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$29.5

Value

$35.55

PnL

+$6.05

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$25.15

Value

$30

PnL

+$4.85

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

Rock.San<$100

Invested

$18.36

Value

$18.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

89%

12038-1416 (13454)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$1.31

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x773c7dc8...11931b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793577600

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.6K

-$29.19

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $617.5

+$0.16

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $427.68

-$46.82

gansinimen

Up — $415

-$27.69

ply-pm0

Up — $232.25

+$7.28

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $429.98

+$225.65

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$64.5

FairValueMachine

Up — $190

+$39.6

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $168.89

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded