Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

21 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$48

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares8,192

Combined PnL-$133.92

Down21 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,779

Combined PnL+$85.91

Up — 19%Down — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR	Up	$7.8K	$7.8K	-$99.27	56% 3698-2861 (6559)
BO bosona	Downavg 61¢	$186.06	$304.87	+$118.81	55% 50153-40327 (90480)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 86.8¢	$366.92	$277.28	-$89.64	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 80.2¢	$197	$212.18	+$15.18	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$187.11	$188.06	+$0.94	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 68.3¢	$142.06	$175.16	+$33.1	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 69.2¢	$112.47	$132.75	+$20.28	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97.8¢	$57.94	$58.38	+$0.44	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$39.42	$42.24	+$2.82	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 85¢	$36.84	$38.36	+$1.52	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 68¢	$50.62	$36.85	-$13.77	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 88¢	$31.42	$31.6	+$0.18	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 86¢	$58.06	$30.96	+$2.3	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$33.2	$25.01	-$8.19	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 82¢	$22.96	$24.78	+$1.82	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 95¢	$12.87	$13.34	+$0.47	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 77.7¢	$9.99	$11.38	+$1.39	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 61¢	$12.2	$9.9	-$2.3	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 50¢	$9.78	$9.68	-$0.1	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Upavg 31.4¢	$39.79	$9.49	-$30.3	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95¢	$7.68	$7.96	+$0.28	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$13	$7.3	-$5.7	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 91¢	$6.32	$6.84	+$0.52	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 91¢	$5.52	$5.37	-$0.15	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$3.77	$4.34	+$0.57	60% 12586-8357 (20943)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$7,801.14

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$99.27

Record

56%

3698-2861 (6559)

bosona

Down

Invested

$186.06

Value

$304.87

PnL

+$118.81

Record

55%

50153-40327 (90480)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$366.92

Value

$277.28

PnL

-$89.64

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$197

Value

$212.18

PnL

+$15.18

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$187.11

Value

$188.06

PnL

+$0.94

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$142.06

Value

$175.16

PnL

+$33.1

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$112.47

Value

$132.75

PnL

+$20.28

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$57.94

Value

$58.38

PnL

+$0.44

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$39.42

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$2.82

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$36.84

Value

$38.36

PnL

+$1.52

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$50.62

Value

$36.85

PnL

-$13.77

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$31.42

Value

$31.6

PnL

+$0.18

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$58.06

Value

$30.96

PnL

+$2.3

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$33.2

Value

$25.01

PnL

-$8.19

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$22.96

Value

$24.78

PnL

+$1.82

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$12.87

Value

$13.34

PnL

+$0.47

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$9.99

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$1.39

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$12.2

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$2.3

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$9.78

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Invested

$39.79

Value

$9.49

PnL

-$30.3

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$5.7

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$6.32

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0.52

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$0.15

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0.57

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.