Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

-$349.25

Smart Money Signal

23 of 30 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,168

Combined PnL+$235.09

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,122

Combined PnL-$584.34

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$23.53	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 55.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$52.95	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$29.81	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$464.01	$1.1K	+$623.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$593.37	—	-$593.37
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 56.5¢	$601.65	$786.52	+$184.87	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 52.9¢	$436.04	$583	+$146.96	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 36.2¢	$394.21	—	-$394.21	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 60.4¢	$304.01	$314.62	+$10.61	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 77¢	$371.86	$303.35	-$68.51	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 60.2¢	$285.72	$275.96	-$9.77	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 98¢	$228.59	$233.26	+$4.67	52% 804-728 (1532)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 68¢	$255.81	$218.83	-$36.97	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 56.5¢	$214.6	$199.99	-$14.61	51% 17198-16705 (33903)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 93.3¢	$107.02	$93	-$14.02	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 92.2¢	$99.17	$87.26	-$11.91	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 96¢	$81.24	$78	-$1.62	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$73.94	$110	+$36.06	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$57.75	$110	+$52.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.9¢	$16.19	—	-$16.19
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$51.99	—	-$51.99	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$75.03	$65.7	-$9.32	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$36.85	—	-$36.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.1¢	$38.18	$65.7	+$27.53
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98¢	$70.74	$69	-$1.74	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$48.87	$60.01	+$11.14	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$31.05	$36.99	+$5.94	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 26.6¢	$35.77	—	-$35.77	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 48¢	$30	$62.5	+$32.5	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 90.3¢	$24.81	$23.43	-$1.38	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 56¢	$21.15	$20	-$1.15	55% 24178-19509 (43687)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,329.41

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$23.53

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,336.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$52.95

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,057.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$29.81

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

Both legs:

Up$464.0142.7¢+$623.18

Down$593.3740.4¢-$593.37

GoodFallen

Invested

$601.65

Value

$786.52

PnL

+$184.87

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

antsaslyku

Invested

$436.04

Value

$583

PnL

+$146.96

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$394.21

Value

—

PnL

-$394.21

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$304.01

Value

$314.62

PnL

+$10.61

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$371.86

Value

$303.35

PnL

-$68.51

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$285.72

Value

$275.96

PnL

-$9.77

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$228.59

Value

$233.26

PnL

+$4.67

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$255.81

Value

$218.83

PnL

-$36.97

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

gansinimen

Invested

$214.6

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$14.61

Record

51%

17198-16705 (33903)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$107.02

Value

$93

PnL

-$14.02

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$99.17

Value

$87.26

PnL

-$11.91

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$81.24

Value

$78

PnL

-$1.62

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$73.94

Value

$110

PnL

+$36.06

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

Both legs:

Up$57.7552.5¢+$52.25

Down$16.1938.9¢-$16.19

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.99

Value

—

PnL

-$51.99

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$75.03

Value

$65.7

PnL

-$9.32

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

Both legs:

Down$36.8550.7¢-$36.85

Up$38.1858.1¢+$27.53

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$70.74

Value

$69

PnL

-$1.74

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$48.87

Value

$60.01

PnL

+$11.14

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$31.05

Value

$36.99

PnL

+$5.94

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.77

Value

—

PnL

-$35.77

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$32.5

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$24.81

Value

$23.43

PnL

-$1.38

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$21.15

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.15

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 30 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0177331b...b083c7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793574300

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $2.4K

+$23.53

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

-$52.95

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$29.81

GoodFallen

Up — $786.52

+$184.87

antsaslyku

Up — $583

+$146.96

ply-pm0

CTR

Down — $0

-$394.21

FairValueMachine

Up — $314.62

+$10.61

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $303.35

-$68.51

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $275.96

-$9.77

seeeeeeb

Up — $233.26

+$4.67

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