Consensus PnL $78K · win rate 60% (2822–1903, n=4725) · PM monthly #210 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$78.3K
Record
2822W / 1903L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 4725 settled
Batting Avg
70.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1146
Source
PM monthly #210
Trades
36
Markets
25,339
Volume
$6.5M
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 22 on the consensus side (86%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETDown $825 · now 100¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (64% of 26)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETUp $776 · now 100¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (79% of 32)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETUp $600 · now 0¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (60% of 28)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ETDown $331 · now 100¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (52% of 29)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ETUp $249 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (57% of 28)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETDown $246 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (64% of 27)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ETDown $212 · now 100¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ETDown $190 · now 100¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (88% of 25)
Specialties
1,533 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 62¢- Crypto
+37 pts
side won 100% of 1533 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 62)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 100% of 248)
- 50–70¢: 44%(won 99% of 673)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 100% of 550)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.