Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$558.47

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 26 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,508

Combined PnL+$198.88

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,481

Combined PnL-$757.36

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57¢	$966.67	$919.29	-$47.38	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$484.53	$353.4	-$131.14	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$121.93	$353.4	+$231.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$362.61	—	-$362.61
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 43.9¢	$447.29	—	-$447.29	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 67.6¢	$399.65	$393.32	-$6.33	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 54.5¢	$272.71	$342.73	+$70.02	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 65.8¢	$382.97	$331.94	-$51.03	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 58.3¢	$297.68	$255.72	-$39.52	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.3¢	$115.73	$255.72	+$140.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$179.69	—	-$179.69
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$394.36	$163.75	-$230.61	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$74.06	$163.75	+$89.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$320.3	—	-$320.3
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 38.4¢	$71.36	$185.97	+$114.6	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$115.2	$35.57	-$79.63	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$101.9	—	-$101.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$13.3	$35.57	+$22.27
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$46.3	$72.72	+$26.42	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8.6¢	$37.73	—	-$37.73	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$46.97	$51.57	+$14.29	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 46¢	$26.37	$40	+$13.63	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$44.25	—	-$44.25	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 38.3¢	$22.05	$49.99	+$27.94	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 97.5¢	$33.32	$34.18	+$0.86	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 34¢	$16.65	$25	+$8.35	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$25	—	-$25	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 53¢	$26.5	$50	+$23.5	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 42¢	$7.03	$11.03	+$4	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 54.9¢	$139.2	—	-$139.2	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$7.8	—	-$7.8	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$9.58	—	-$9.58	51% 17198-16705 (33903)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2	52% 91321-85769 (177090)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$966.67

Value

$919.29

PnL

-$47.38

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$484.53

Value

$353.4

PnL

-$131.14

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

Both legs:

Down$121.9334.5¢+$231.47

Up$362.6150.3¢-$362.61

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$447.29

Value

—

PnL

-$447.29

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$399.65

Value

$393.32

PnL

-$6.33

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$272.71

Value

$342.73

PnL

+$70.02

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$382.97

Value

$331.94

PnL

-$51.03

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$297.68

Value

$255.72

PnL

-$39.52

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Down$115.7345.3¢+$140.17

Up$179.6958.3¢-$179.69

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$394.36

Value

$163.75

PnL

-$230.61

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

Both legs:

Down$74.0645.2¢+$89.69

Up$320.359.5¢-$320.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$71.36

Value

$185.97

PnL

+$114.6

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$115.2

Value

$35.57

PnL

-$79.63

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

Both legs:

Up$101.950.5¢-$101.9

Down$13.337.4¢+$22.27

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$46.3

Value

$72.72

PnL

+$26.42

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$37.73

Value

—

PnL

-$37.73

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$46.97

Value

$51.57

PnL

+$14.29

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$26.37

Value

$40

PnL

+$13.63

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$44.25

Value

—

PnL

-$44.25

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$22.05

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$27.94

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$33.32

Value

$34.18

PnL

+$0.86

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$16.65

Value

$25

PnL

+$8.35

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$25

Value

—

PnL

-$25

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$26.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$23.5

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$7.03

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$139.2

Value

—

PnL

-$139.2

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

—

PnL

-$7.8

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

—

PnL

-$9.58

Record

51%

17198-16705 (33903)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

—

PnL

-$13.2

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 26 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x40fb6082...377329

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793574900

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $919.29

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $393.32

-$6.33

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $342.73

+$70.02

GoodFallen

Down — $331.94

-$51.03

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $185.97

Kathod-Shi-14

Arbitrage — excluded