Consensus PnL $51K · win rate 85% (22–4, n=26) · hand-picked wallet · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$50.9K
Record
22W / 4L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 26 settled
Batting Avg
73.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#348
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
2,079
Markets
68
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $47K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes $7.4K · now 93¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (71% of 31)
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No $1.1K · now 97¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes $694 · now 85¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (50% of 22)
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $197 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
Specialties
52 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 91¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +8%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 94%(won 98% of 49)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.