Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 85¢ · $86K held · ends Nov 4

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$85.7K

Combined PnL

$10.1K

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 84.5¢

+23% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 22 top traders (50%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$79.4K

Total Shares93,360

Combined PnL+$12.4K

No11 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares42,031

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4824h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scottilicious	Yesavg 79.3¢	$33.7K	$36.1K	+$2.4K	82% 945-201 (1146)
SL SlavaUkraini	Yesavg 45¢	$4.6K	$25.4K	+$9.0K	71% 160-66 (226)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 81¢	$7.2K	$7.5K	+$353.97	61% 203-132 (335)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 19¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$833.28	47% 474-534 (1008)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 82¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$105.58	69% 156-69 (225)
JO JoeBlack01	Yesavg 80¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$150	60% 474-313 (787)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 79¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$108.32	85% 311-57 (368)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Noavg 16.9¢	$674.06	$1.3K	-$340.26	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 76.2¢	$865.98	$959.61	+$93.63	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 77¢	$770	$850	+$80	58% 182-132 (314)
StarMaster	Yesavg 85¢	$850	$850	+$0	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
HO HongKongMenace	Yesavg 76.3¢	$676.2	$693.52	+$69.27	82% 47-10 (57)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 19.1¢	$1.1K	$664.76	-$231.23	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 21¢	$720.7	$489.19	-$183.5	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 19.2¢	$330.06	$300.07	-$30	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
FU FulguratorCTR	Noavg 58.1¢	$859.74	$222.14	-$637.6	92% 61-5 (66)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 19¢	$192.46	$148.05	-$44.41	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$62.57	$68.32	+$0.87	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$53.91	$33.73	-$20.18	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
IN insidero<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$4.88	$5	+$0.15	76% 291-93 (384)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$3.33	$3.45	+$0.12	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$0.52	$0.23	-$0.3	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$33,659.39

Value

$36.1K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

SlavaUkraini

Yes

Invested

$4,582.48

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$9.0K

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$7,167.61

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$353.97

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$3,958.07

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$833.28

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$2,885.37

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$105.58

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

JoeBlack01

Yes

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$150

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$1,308.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$108.32

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Invested

$674.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$340.26

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$865.98

Value

$959.61

PnL

+$93.63

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$770

Value

$850

PnL

+$80

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$850

Value

$850

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

HongKongMenace

Yes

Invested

$676.2

Value

$693.52

PnL

+$69.27

Record

82%

47-10 (57)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$1,147.29

Value

$664.76

PnL

-$231.23

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$720.7

Value

$489.19

PnL

-$183.5

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$330.06

Value

$300.07

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

FulguratorCTR

Invested

$859.74

Value

$222.14

PnL

-$637.6

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$192.46

Value

$148.05

PnL

-$44.41

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$62.57

Value

$68.32

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$53.91

Value

$33.73

PnL

-$20.18

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

insidero<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.3

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 22 top traders (50%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4824h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.