Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

22 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 93¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 4

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$51.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 92.5¢

+4% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 31 top traders (71%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes22 traders

Total Value$48.6K

Total Shares52,525

Combined PnL+$1.7K

No9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares33,716

Combined PnL-$666.23

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 93% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HongKongMenace	Yesavg 93¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	-$40	82% 47-10 (57)
scottilicious	Yesavg 90.5¢	$6.6K	$6.8K	+$144.62	82% 945-201 (1146)
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 86.3¢	$6.0K	$6.4K	+$433.76	56% 973-769 (1742)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 87.8¢	$5.2K	$5.5K	+$281.33	69% 804-359 (1163)
The-Joker	Yesavg 87¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$237.7	68% 1507-701 (2208)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 89.3¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$116.36	85% 311-57 (368)
BU burrito338	Yesavg 88.7¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$114.47	92% 88-8 (96)
DZ dzsibenaja	Yesavg 89.2¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$92.15	88% 171-24 (195)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 89.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$52.71	69% 156-69 (225)
perfectnostalgia	Yesavg 91.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$17.5	55% 338-273 (611)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 87.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$59.18	94% 442-28 (470)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 8.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$134.36	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 86¢	$860	$925	+$65	82% 1758-394 (2152)
studmuffin6969	Yesavg 92¢	$920	$925	+$5	59% 1027-717 (1744)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 12¢	$104.04	$810.15	-$486.09	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
TBill1	Yesavg 87¢	$695.99	$739.99	+$44	45% 154-188 (342)
PMTraderAdam	Yesavg 86.9¢	$607.99	$647.49	+$39.5	77% 830-249 (1079)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Yesavg 88¢	$486.69	$509.45	+$24.79	40% 174-265 (439)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 7.6¢	$500.46	$493.39	-$7.08	47% 474-534 (1008)
AV aviato	Yesavg 86¢	$430	$462.5	+$32.5	84% 2440-449 (2889)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 90.4¢	$378.96	$387.74	+$8.78	76% 102-32 (134)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 92¢	$306.36	$308.03	+$1.67	89% 4652-547 (5199)
Talophex	Yesavg 90¢	$225	$231.25	+$6.25	91% 929-95 (1024)
StarMaster	Yesavg 87.3¢	$137.73	$138.48	+$0.75	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
SirHarryOakes	Yesavg 91.1¢	$126.27	$128.25	+$1.98	84% 215-41 (256)

HongKongMenace

Yes

Invested

$7,440

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$40

Record

82%

47-10 (57)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$6,627.9

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$144.62

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$6,006.7

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$433.76

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$5,229.85

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$281.33

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

The-Joker

Yes

Invested

$3,760.03

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$237.7

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$3,230.03

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$116.36

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

burrito338

Yes

Invested

$2,660.53

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$114.47

Record

92%

88-8 (96)

dzsibenaja

Yes

Invested

$2,682.85

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$92.15

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$1,380.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$52.71

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

perfectnostalgia

Yes

Invested

$1,369.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$17.5

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$1,297.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$59.18

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$1,232.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$134.36

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$860

Value

$925

PnL

+$65

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

studmuffin6969

Yes

Invested

$920

Value

$925

PnL

+$5

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$104.04

Value

$810.15

PnL

-$486.09

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

TBill1

Yes

Invested

$695.99

Value

$739.99

PnL

+$44

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

PMTraderAdam

Yes

Invested

$607.99

Value

$647.49

PnL

+$39.5

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes

Invested

$486.69

Value

$509.45

PnL

+$24.79

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$500.46

Value

$493.39

PnL

-$7.08

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

aviato

Yes

Invested

$430

Value

$462.5

PnL

+$32.5

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$378.96

Value

$387.74

PnL

+$8.78

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$306.36

Value

$308.03

PnL

+$1.67

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

Talophex

Yes

Invested

$225

Value

$231.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$137.73

Value

$138.48

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

SirHarryOakes

Yes

Invested

$126.27

Value

$128.25

PnL

+$1.98

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 31 top traders (71%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 93% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.