Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.5K

Smart Money Entry

3.9¢ → 1.8¢

-55% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares209,575

Combined PnL$-4.5K

No1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,320

Combined PnL+$25.25

Yes — 92%No — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

215 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$6.9K	$3.0K	$-3.7K	82% 945-201 (1146)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 96.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.25	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
BU burrito338CTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$486.75	$278.14	-$243.36	92% 88-8 (96)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$438.23	$221.23	-$217.01	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
HO HongKongMenaceCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$297.85	$196.74	-$101.11	82% 47-10 (57)
IN insideroCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$338.92	$160.46	-$191.19	76% 291-93 (384)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$140.93	+$78.02	46% 271-319 (590)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$125.25	$79.59	-$47.44	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$102.62	$65.78	-$41.76	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$76.5	$30	-$50.25	55% 338-273 (611)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$28.95	+$14.02	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$3	$3	+$1.45	7% 14-187 (201)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,863.59

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,279.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.25

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

burrito338CTR

Yes

Invested

$486.75

Value

$278.14

PnL

-$243.36

Record

92%

88-8 (96)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$438.23

Value

$221.23

PnL

-$217.01

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

HongKongMenaceCTR

Yes

Invested

$297.85

Value

$196.74

PnL

-$101.11

Record

82%

47-10 (57)

insideroCTR

Yes

Invested

$338.92

Value

$160.46

PnL

-$191.19

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$140.93

PnL

+$78.02

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.25

Value

$79.59

PnL

-$47.44

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.62

Value

$65.78

PnL

-$41.76

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.5

Value

$30

PnL

-$50.25

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$14.02

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1.45

Record

14-187 (201)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

215 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.9%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3400.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

3500.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.