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24 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $75K held · ends Dec 31

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$75.0K

Combined PnL

$11.0K

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 96.7¢

+19% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 27 top traders (89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No24 traders

Total Value$74.4K

Total Shares77,067

Combined PnL+$11.4K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$576.44

Total Shares6,432

Combined PnL-$442.58

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 93% · 14

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MEPP	Noavg 81¢	$19.5K	$23.2K	+$3.8K	64% 633-352 (985)
AngryRhino	Noavg 70¢	$771.75	$13.6K	+$4.2K	69% 133-59 (192)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 96.6¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$4.79	77% 1408-416 (1824)
MisTKy	Noavg 94.9¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$89.47	71% 568-236 (804)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 70.9¢	$3.5K	$4.8K	+$1.3K	56% 973-770 (1743)
IN insidero	Noavg 94.6¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$81.84	76% 291-93 (384)
ImJustKen	Noavg 74.1¢	$1.9K	$2.5K	+$576.08	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 82.1¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$355.03	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
Bromley86	Noavg 91.1¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$36.42	90% 728-80 (808)
Car	Noavg 77.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$22.4	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
DE denizz	Noavg 78.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$12.17	68% 597-284 (881)
esports095	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$2.04	58% 651-467 (1118)
HO HongKongMenace	Noavg 78¢	$851.18	$1.1K	+$203.52	82% 47-10 (57)
mombil	Noavg 81¢	$81.01	$989.42	+$160.29	55% 1191-966 (2157)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93.2¢	$872.17	$897.47	+$30.84	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 81.4¢	$576.01	$671.49	+$95.48	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
classified	Noavg 73.5¢	$364.77	$463.95	+$99.18	58% 844-614 (1458)
siick	Noavg 82.1¢	$371.28	$432.48	+$61.2	57% 768-580 (1348)
KR Krass	Noavg 62¢	$270.93	$422.13	+$151.42	74% 452-155 (607)
GohstCTR	Yesavg 13.8¢	$228.56	$392.18	+$163.81	49% 738-770 (1508)
LI lissartter	No	$389.74	$389.74	+$100.07	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
DumplingBMF	Noavg 78.7¢	$236	$289.8	+$53.95	68% 1830-849 (2679)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$76.96	$143.84	-$444.97	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$224.17	$40.42	-$161.43	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
ME melganis<$100	Noavg 89¢	$36.39	$39.5	+$3.13	75% 1597-541 (2138)

MEPP

Invested

$19,452.04

Value

$23.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

AngryRhino

Invested

$771.75

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$5,912.25

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$4.79

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

MisTKy

Invested

$4,851.76

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$89.47

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$3,521.58

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

insidero

Invested

$3,688.86

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$81.84

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,892.03

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$576.08

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

cocococococo

Invested

$2,109.21

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$355.03

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Bromley86

Invested

$2,243.44

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$36.42

Record

90%

728-80 (808)

Car

Invested

$1,909.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$22.4

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

denizz

Invested

$1,712.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$12.17

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

esports095

Invested

$1,645.54

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$2.04

Record

58%

651-467 (1118)

HongKongMenace

Invested

$851.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$203.52

Record

82%

47-10 (57)

mombil

Invested

$81.01

Value

$989.42

PnL

+$160.29

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$872.17

Value

$897.47

PnL

+$30.84

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$576.01

Value

$671.49

PnL

+$95.48

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

classified

Invested

$364.77

Value

$463.95

PnL

+$99.18

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

siick

Invested

$371.28

Value

$432.48

PnL

+$61.2

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Krass

Invested

$270.93

Value

$422.13

PnL

+$151.42

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

GohstCTR

Yes

Invested

$228.56

Value

$392.18

PnL

+$163.81

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

lissartter

Invested

$389.74

Value

$389.74

PnL

+$100.07

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

DumplingBMF

Invested

$236

Value

$289.8

PnL

+$53.95

Record

68%

1830-849 (2679)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$76.96

Value

$143.84

PnL

-$444.97

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$224.17

Value

$40.42

PnL

-$161.43

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

melganis<$100

Invested

$36.39

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$3.13

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

24 of 27 top traders (89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 93% · 14

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.