Consensus PnL -$1.4K · win rate 50% (293–293, n=586) · PM monthly #839 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.4K
Record
293W / 293L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 586 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1877
Source
PM monthly #839
Record (90 d)
93/94 · 99%
Trades
286
Markets
640
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AFURIA $5.4K · now 63¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (FaZe)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATeam Falcons $3.4K · now 55¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (71% of 50)
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)FURIA $1.7K · now 0¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (FaZe)
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)TYLOO $800 · now 30¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (MOUZ)
Specialties
428 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 54¢- Esports
+27 pts
side won 81% of 145 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +36%
- MLB
+24 pts
side won 79% of 52 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +27%
- Soccer
+14 pts
side won 70% of 76 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +22%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 26% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 71% of 139)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 77% of 226)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 84% of 44)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.