Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (56%) · MOUZ at 93¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 2

MOUZ93¢TYLOO7¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.5K

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 92.5¢

+33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ93%

TYLOO8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ9 traders

Total Value$26.4K

Total Shares29,479

Combined PnL+$4.3K

TYLOO7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares44,574

Combined PnL$-9.8K

MOUZ — 56%TYLOO — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTYLOO 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMOUZ 57% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000MOUZ 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	MOUZavg 71¢	$5.8K	$7.5K	+$1.7K	54% 63-54 (117)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	MOUZavg 67¢	$4.1K	$5.6K	+$769.65	52% 102-94 (196)
lma0o0o0o	MOUZavg 68¢	$4.6K	$5.6K	+$1.0K	51% 916-892 (1808)
SU suntori	MOUZavg 71¢	$2.9K	$3.7K	+$362.18	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
drainedandpoorCTR	TYLOOavg 33.7¢	$10.1K	$2.5K	$-7.5K	48% 567-615 (1182)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 70¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$236.14	60% 1188-785 (1973)
relativesignificance	MOUZavg 65.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$162.38	55% 120-97 (217)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	TYLOOavg 20¢	$947.45	$555.71	-$391.74	51% 1851-1781 (3632)
└ TYLOO leg	TYLOOavg 20¢	$757.79	$321.99	-$435.81
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 74.2¢	$189.66	$233.73	+$44.07
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	TYLOOavg 32¢	$2.0K	$507.58	$-1.5K	53% 139-122 (261)
HL HLEbritniCTR	TYLOOavg 33¢	$419.99	$449.99	+$30	60% 12-8 (20)
HO HongweiqianCTR	TYLOOavg 30¢	$450	$212.5	-$237.5	49% 246-261 (507)
SE seeeeeeb	MOUZavg 85.7¢	$193.15	$189.63	-$1.69	53% 858-761 (1619)
PA pauleta23	MOUZavg 87¢	$193.15	$186.72	-$6.43	66% 23620-11932 (35552)
SatanishippieCTR	TYLOOavg 32.1¢	$442.06	$149.8	-$292.26	48% 325-350 (675)
hasobidaleCTR	TYLOOavg 33¢	$268.97	$61.14	-$207.83	65% 231-125 (356)
GOLDCRYPT12	MOUZavg 50¢	$107.32	$48.69	+$41.03	51% 977-924 (1901)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 21.3¢	$32.44	$12.92	-$21.8	43% 7731-10455 (18186)

yabanci

MOUZ

Invested

$5,810.11

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

54%

63-54 (117)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

MOUZ

Invested

$4,125.31

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$769.65

Record

52%

102-94 (196)

lma0o0o0o

MOUZ

Invested

$4,610.4

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

916-892 (1808)

suntori

MOUZ

Invested

$2,866.66

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$362.18

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

drainedandpoorCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$10,099.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

48%

567-615 (1182)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$1,740

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$236.14

Record

60%

1188-785 (1973)

relativesignificance

MOUZ

Invested

$1,117.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$162.38

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$947.45

Value

$555.71

PnL

-$391.74

Record

51%

1851-1781 (3632)

Both legs:

TYLOO$757.7920¢-$435.81

MOUZ$189.6674.2¢+$44.07

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$2,030.33

Value

$507.58

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

139-122 (261)

HLEbritniCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$419.99

Value

$449.99

PnL

+$30

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

HongweiqianCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$450

Value

$212.5

PnL

-$237.5

Record

49%

246-261 (507)

seeeeeeb

MOUZ

Invested

$193.15

Value

$189.63

PnL

-$1.69

Record

53%

858-761 (1619)

pauleta23

MOUZ

Invested

$193.15

Value

$186.72

PnL

-$6.43

Record

66%

23620-11932 (35552)

SatanishippieCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$442.06

Value

$149.8

PnL

-$292.26

Record

48%

325-350 (675)

hasobidaleCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$268.97

Value

$61.14

PnL

-$207.83

Record

65%

231-125 (356)

GOLDCRYPT12

MOUZ

Invested

$107.32

Value

$48.69

PnL

+$41.03

Record

51%

977-924 (1901)

NotJumpCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$32.44

Value

$12.92

PnL

-$21.8

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTYLOO 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMOUZ 57% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000MOUZ 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.