Consensus PnL $24K · win rate 83% (10–2, n=12) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$23.7K
Record
10W / 2L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 12 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#376
Source
PM monthly #997
Trades
48
Markets
23
Volume
$451.5K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $284K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $109K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No $72K · now 91¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $22K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $3.4K · now 89¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.6K · now 19¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $1.3K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
Specialties
12 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 83¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where IGORS's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 83%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.