Consensus PnL $3.9K · win rate 61% (11–7, n=18) · PM monthly #260 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.9K
Record
11W / 7L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 18 settled
Batting Avg
42.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#778
Source
PM monthly #260
Record (90 d)
7/20 · 35%
Trades
646
Markets
34
Volume
$263.8K
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Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 16 on the consensus side (94%)- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $2.5K · now 25¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Aviv Kohavi be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $7 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 22)
- Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will Emiliano García-Page be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
Specialties
20 settled consensus markets · held side won 35% at an average entry of 34¢- Elections
+2 pts
side won 36% of 11 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +20%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 10% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 75% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 33% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 15%(won 67% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.