Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (41%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Apr 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 41%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$376.64

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,183

Combined PnL+$1.62

Yes10 traders

Total Value$11.81

Total Shares23,613

Combined PnL-$378.27

No — 41%Yes — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

723h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.67	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.9¢	$676.45	$676.79	+$0.34	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
GI GingerMcKenna	Noavg 99.9¢	$554.51	$554.79	+$0.28	38% 3057-4942 (7999)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 99.9¢	$391.51	$391.7	+$0.2	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
ME merod	Noavg 99.9¢	$116	$116.06	+$0.06	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$69.9	$69.97	+$0.06	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$44.9	$39.98	+$0.02	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
MK MKSafeCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$114.67	$3.33	-$111.35	28% 11-28 (39)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.2	$2.91	-$97.35	17% 1213-5822 (7035)
GE gesstCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$72.41	$2.1	-$70.31	51% 190-180 (370)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$1.39	$1.39	-$46.25	51% 3655-3502 (7157)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$28.24	$0.82	-$27.42	29% 667-1649 (2316)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.2K	$0.58	-$7.19	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$13.75	$0.4	-$13.35	25% 738-2267 (3005)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.34	$0.14	-$4.2	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.54	$0.12	-$0.42	41% 1485-2116 (3601)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.44	$0.03	-$0.41	34% 559-1062 (1621)

donthackme

Invested

$1,331.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.67

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$676.45

Value

$676.79

PnL

+$0.34

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

GingerMcKenna

Invested

$554.51

Value

$554.79

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$391.51

Value

$391.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

merod

Invested

$116

Value

$116.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$69.9

Value

$69.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$44.9

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

MKSafeCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.67

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$111.35

Record

28%

11-28 (39)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$97.35

Record

17%

1213-5822 (7035)

gesstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.41

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$70.31

Record

51%

190-180 (370)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$46.25

Record

51%

3655-3502 (7157)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.24

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$27.42

Record

29%

667-1649 (2316)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,160.75

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$7.19

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.75

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$13.35

Record

25%

738-2267 (3005)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.34

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$4.2

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.42

Record

41%

1485-2116 (3601)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.41

Record

34%

559-1062 (1621)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

723h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.