Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (39%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Apr 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 39%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$428.86

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,697

Combined PnL+$1.2

Yes11 traders

Total Value$13.09

Total Shares26,189

Combined PnL-$430.06

No — 39%Yes — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 59% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.67	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.9¢	$676.45	$676.79	+$0.34	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 99.9¢	$391.51	$391.7	+$0.2	52% 6272-5822 (12094)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.8¢	$128.73	$128.44	-$0.08	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
ME merod	Noavg 99.9¢	$116	$116.06	+$0.06	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.98	+$0.02	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.93	$10	+$0.01	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
MK MKSafeCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$114.67	$3.33	-$111.35	28% 11-28 (39)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.2	$2.73	-$91.42	17% 1239-5868 (7107)
GE gesstCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$72.41	$2.1	-$70.31	52% 194-181 (375)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yes	$1.49	$1.49	-$49.84	29% 2435-5842 (8277)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$1.38	$1.38	-$46.09	51% 3681-3532 (7213)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$28.24	$0.82	-$27.42	29% 671-1654 (2325)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.2K	$0.58	-$7.19	36% 2018-3600 (5618)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$13.75	$0.4	-$13.35	25% 751-2290 (3041)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$12.37	$0.12	-$12.24	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.54	$0.12	-$0.42	42% 1516-2129 (3645)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.44	$0.03	-$0.41	35% 565-1069 (1634)

donthackme

Invested

$1,331.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.67

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$676.45

Value

$676.79

PnL

+$0.34

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$391.51

Value

$391.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

6272-5822 (12094)

ghorrock

Invested

$128.73

Value

$128.44

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

merod

Invested

$116

Value

$116.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

MKSafeCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.67

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$111.35

Record

28%

11-28 (39)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$91.42

Record

17%

1239-5868 (7107)

gesstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.41

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$70.31

Record

52%

194-181 (375)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$49.84

Record

29%

2435-5842 (8277)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$46.09

Record

51%

3681-3532 (7213)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.24

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$27.42

Record

29%

671-1654 (2325)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,160.75

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$7.19

Record

36%

2018-3600 (5618)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.75

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$13.35

Record

25%

751-2290 (3041)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.37

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$12.24

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.42

Record

42%

1516-2129 (3645)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.41

Record

35%

565-1069 (1634)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 59% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.