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Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

2 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (6%) · No at 100¢ · $898 held · ends Apr 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Apr 1, 2028View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

No

Consensus Traders

32

No 6%

Total Value

$897.57

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

  • Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
  • Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

No

2 of 32 top traders (6%)30 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders
Total Value$847.64
Total Shares848
Combined PnL+$0.42
Yes30 traders
Total Value$49.93
Total Shares99,853
Combined PnL$-1.6K
No — 6%Yes — 94%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

747h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians
whaleYes 100% · 2
Diverging
ctrYes 91% · 11
Diverging
Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2
Diverging
Top 1000Yes 94% · 32
Diverging
GI
GingerMcKenna
No

Invested

$554.51

Value

$554.79

PnL

+$0.28

Record

37%

3298-5674 (8972)

PL
plainfolder
No

Invested

$292.71

Value

$292.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

31%

4457-9735 (14192)

BI
BiggggggggCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$46.08

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$414.64

Record

31%

3239-7107 (10346)

E4
e46m3CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$197.94

Record

67%

27461-13817 (41278)

PI
PiEDawgCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$136.64

Record

35%

1822-3397 (5219)

MK
MKSafeCTR
Yes

Invested

$114.67

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$111.35

Record

28%

11-28 (39)

WA
WarriorHCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$110.42

Record

17%

1312-6537 (7849)

AL
alex20011CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$99.85

Record

37%

4013-6771 (10784)

VE
VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$94.97

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$92.22

Record

20%

341-1336 (1677)

0X
0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$2.98

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$79.32

Record

23%

1782-6016 (7798)

GE
gesstCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$72.41

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$70.31

Record

52%

197-185 (382)

GO
god83743894CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$54.11

Record

43%

10598-14075 (24673)

0X
0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$40.46

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$39.29

Record

51%

154-147 (301)

0X
0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$33.43

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$32.46

Record

27%

680-1886 (2566)

VI
VictorLudorumCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$29.82

Record

49%

6544-6928 (13472)

LP
lpgbCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$27.58

Record

26%

562-1631 (2193)

QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.83

Record

54%

12407-10640 (23047)

FO
forgotmydinnerCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$12.28

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$11.58

Record

17%

104-504 (608)

0X
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$20.22

Record

38%

1280-2072 (3352)

FO
fourcoin15mCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$17.56

Record

39%

5748-9160 (14908)

KL
klli27CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$15.57

Record

29%

473-1160 (1633)

SP
SPLPBCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$13.75

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$13.35

Record

23%

780-2548 (3328)

ME
merodCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$11.75

Record

34%

3308-6339 (9647)

KO
korda77CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$10.93

Record

38%

7141-11763 (18904)

probabilityCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$10.44

Record

40%

1565-2380 (3945)

Chat

EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.10
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0x8d2ef61d...2615e1
Slug
will-cuca-gamarra-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005710106

Traders in this Market

GI

GingerMcKenna

No — $554.79

+$0.28
PL

plainfolder

No — $292.85

+$0.15
BI

Bigggggggg

CTR

Yes — $12.38

-$414.64
E4

e46m3

CTR

Yes — $5.91

-$197.94
PI

PiEDawg

CTR

Yes — $4.08

-$136.64
MK

MKSafe

CTR

Yes — $3.33

-$111.35
WA

WarriorH

CTR

Yes — $3.3

-$110.42
AL

alex20011

CTR

Yes — $2.98

-$99.85
VE

VerilyWinningly

CTR

Yes — $2.75

-$92.22
0X

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

CTR

Yes — $2.37

-$79.32
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