Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 20 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Aviv Kohavi be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

20 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $331 held · ended Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$330.68

Combined PnL

$-5.3K

Smart Money Entry

1.4¢ → 0.1¢

-89% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 20 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$330.68

Total Shares220,452

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yes	$117.08	$117.08	$-2.3K	43% 3086-4125 (7211)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$46.3	$74.22	-$821.19	40% 2703-4053 (6756)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	$22.44	$22.44	-$511.83	53% 28648-25583 (54231)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$12.71	$19.07	+$6.36	54% 1605-1394 (2999)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$46.9	$17.85	-$407.07	42% 10297-14320 (24617)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$2.52	$14.55	-$331.91	36% 2155-3861 (6016)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$13.81	$13.81	-$315.05	60% 11493-7614 (19107)
CR cry.eth2CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$78.65	$13.8	-$183.5	40% 9600-14519 (24119)
Gucky-45CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$43.33	$9.51	-$107.89	31% 653-1437 (2090)
MK MKSafeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$5.47	$7.39	+$3	28% 11-28 (39)
BI BikesarethebestCTR<$100	Yes	$5.45	$5.45	-$69.96	42% 2107-2915 (5022)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yes	$3.42	$3.42	+$0	28% 649-1632 (2281)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yes	$3.08	$3.08	-$69.56	38% 3031-4911 (7942)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$50.69	$2.81	-$61.43	29% 2881-7025 (9906)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0	$1.42	+$1.42	32% 6357-13258 (19615)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yes	$1.35	$1.35	-$30.83	43% 1332-1789 (3121)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.46	$1.32	-$30.19	43% 2145-2794 (4939)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$0.91	$0.91	-$17.24	36% 1990-3558 (5548)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yes	$0.76	$0.76	-$15.51	62% 5607-3471 (9078)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$5.56	$0.45	-$5.11	40% 655-989 (1644)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.08

Value

$117.08

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

43%

3086-4125 (7211)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$46.3

Value

$74.22

PnL

-$821.19

Record

40%

2703-4053 (6756)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.44

Value

$22.44

PnL

-$511.83

Record

53%

28648-25583 (54231)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.71

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$6.36

Record

54%

1605-1394 (2999)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.9

Value

$17.85

PnL

-$407.07

Record

42%

10297-14320 (24617)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$14.55

PnL

-$331.91

Record

36%

2155-3861 (6016)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.81

Value

$13.81

PnL

-$315.05

Record

60%

11493-7614 (19107)

cry.eth2CTR

Yes

Invested

$78.65

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$183.5

Record

40%

9600-14519 (24119)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$43.33

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$107.89

Record

31%

653-1437 (2090)

MKSafeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.47

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$3

Record

28%

11-28 (39)

BikesarethebestCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$69.96

Record

42%

2107-2915 (5022)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

649-1632 (2281)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$69.56

Record

38%

3031-4911 (7942)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.69

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$61.43

Record

29%

2881-7025 (9906)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$1.42

Record

32%

6357-13258 (19615)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$30.83

Record

43%

1332-1789 (3121)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$30.19

Record

43%

2145-2794 (4939)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$17.24

Record

36%

1990-3558 (5548)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$15.51

Record

62%

5607-3471 (9078)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$5.11

Record

40%

655-989 (1644)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 20 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8595.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

8695.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.