Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $24 held · ends Apr 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Apr 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$23.57

Combined PnL

-$781.8

Smart Money Entry

1.7¢ → 0.1¢

-97% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$23.57

Total Shares47,148

Combined PnL-$781.8

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

718h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$9.75	$9.75	-$326.61	43% 3100-4146 (7246)
MK MKSafeCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$114.67	$3.33	-$111.35	28% 11-28 (39)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$2.98	$2.98	-$99.85	42% 3687-5095 (8782)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$94.97	$2.75	-$92.22	18% 249-1163 (1412)
GE gesstCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$72.41	$2.1	-$70.31	52% 189-176 (365)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$1.38	$1.38	-$46.09	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$27.38	$0.79	-$26.59	28% 650-1633 (2283)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.09	$0.23	-$7.86	28% 252-658 (910)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.54	$0.12	-$0.42	41% 1441-2084 (3525)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.2	$0.1	-$0.1	17% 1105-5456 (6561)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.44	$0.03	-$0.41	34% 552-1049 (1601)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$326.61

Record

43%

3100-4146 (7246)

MKSafeCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.67

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$111.35

Record

28%

11-28 (39)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.98

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$99.85

Record

42%

3687-5095 (8782)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.97

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$92.22

Record

18%

249-1163 (1412)

gesstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.41

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$70.31

Record

52%

189-176 (365)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$46.09

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.38

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$26.59

Record

28%

650-1633 (2283)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.09

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$7.86

Record

28%

252-658 (910)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.42

Record

41%

1441-2084 (3525)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

17%

1105-5456 (6561)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.41

Record

34%

552-1049 (1601)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

718h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.