Consensus PnL $243K · win rate 70% (3878–1636, n=5514) · was PM monthly #992 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$243.4K
Record
3878W / 1636L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 5514 settled
Batting Avg
49.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#542
Source
PM monthly #992
Record (90 d)
449/457 · 98%
Trades
13,565
Markets
7,800
Volume
$2.0M
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Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Venezia FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over $147 · now 74¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart $123 · now 62¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Ahli Saudi Club $76 · now 50¢ · in at 84¢against the consensus (Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club)
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Abha Saudi Club: O/U 5.5Over $24 · now 12¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (Under)
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5Over $8 · now 75¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
3,498 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 65¢- Soccer
+21 pts
side won 86% of 3498 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 52% of 417)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 76% of 507)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 88% of 699)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 96% of 1875)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.