Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold VfB Stuttgart (80%) · VfB Stuttgart at 62¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 9
⚖️
Neutral
VfB Stuttgart
5
VfB Stuttgart 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
$77.55
56.2¢ → 61.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralVfB Stuttgart at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on VfB Stuttgart. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | VfB Stuttgartavg 83.3¢ | $3.1K | $2.5K | -$597.19 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
| └ VfB Stuttgart leg | VfB Stuttgartavg 83.3¢ | $2.7K | $2.0K | -$696.19 | |
| └ Viking FK leg | Viking FKavg 31.8¢ | $473.88 | $572.88 | +$99 | |
 RN1 | VfB Stuttgartavg 53¢ | $593.72 | $685.77 | +$92.05 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
NO NordhavenCap | VfB Stuttgartavg 72.8¢ | $162.62 | $137.7 | -$24.92 | 57% 2394-1787 (4181) |
MA MartyMcFox | VfB Stuttgartavg 55¢ | $110 | $123 | +$13 | 67% 4563-2290 (6853) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100 | Viking FKavg 41¢ | $41 | $38.5 | -$2.5 | 51% 1790-1709 (3499) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | VfB Stuttgartavg 63.1¢ | $6.9 | $6.82 | -$0.08 | 66% 23988-12172 (36160) |
Invested
$3,135.15
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$597.19
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$593.72
Value
$685.77
PnL
+$92.05
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$162.62
Value
$137.7
PnL
-$24.92
Record
57%
2394-1787 (4181)
Invested
$110
Value
$123
PnL
+$13
Record
67%
4563-2290 (6853)
Invested
$41
Value
$38.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
51%
1790-1709 (3499)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$6.82
PnL
-$0.08
Record
66%
23988-12172 (36160)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.