Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (50%) · Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club at 50¢ · $348 held · ended Sep 8
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Neutral
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club
6
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 50%
$348.06
-$152.19
38.2¢ → 50¢
+31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Qadisiyah Saudi Club at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Al Qadisiyah Saudi Clubavg 38.9¢ | $390.25 | $249.97 | -$140.28 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
MA MartyMcFox<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi Clubavg 84¢ | $84 | $75.5 | -$8.5 | 67% 4563-2290 (6853) |
 RN1<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi Clubavg 81¢ | $8.1 | $7.55 | -$0.55 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Al Qadisiyah Saudi Clubavg 24¢ | $7.14 | $7.28 | +$0.15 | 53% 16515-14663 (31178) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi Clubavg 73¢ | $4.38 | $4.53 | +$0.15 | 59% 31848-22485 (54333) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Al Qadisiyah Saudi Clubavg 24¢ | $3.16 | $3.22 | -$3.16 | 50% 25480-25186 (50666) |
Invested
$390.25
Value
$249.97
PnL
-$140.28
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
Invested
$84
Value
$75.5
PnL
-$8.5
Record
67%
4563-2290 (6853)
RN1<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$7.55
PnL
-$0.55
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$7.28
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
16515-14663 (31178)
Invested
$4.38
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$0.15
Record
59%
31848-22485 (54333)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$3.22
PnL
-$3.16
Record
50%
25480-25186 (50666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club — $249.97
MartyMcFox
Al Ahli Saudi Club — $75.5
RN1
Al Ahli Saudi Club — $7.55
Cannae
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club — $7.28
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Al Ahli Saudi Club — $4.53
sentrio
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club — $3.22