Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 75¢ · $6K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$5.8K
-$137.11
82.2¢ → 74.5¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 82.8¢ | $5.0K | $4.5K | -$482.66 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 14¢ | $415.07 | $752.92 | +$337.85 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 76¢ | $456 | $447 | -$9 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
LA LaarsYCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $47.5 | $63.75 | +$16.25 | 51% 3519-3428 (6947) |
MA MartyMcFox<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $9.35 | $8.2 | -$1.15 | 67% 4563-2290 (6853) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $4.99 | $6.59 | +$1.6 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
RN1Invested
$4,976.19
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$482.66
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$415.07
Value
$752.92
PnL
+$337.85
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
VeryLucky888Invested
$456
Value
$447
PnL
-$9
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$63.75
PnL
+$16.25
Record
51%
3519-3428 (6947)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$8.2
PnL
-$1.15
Record
67%
4563-2290 (6853)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$6.59
PnL
+$1.6
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.