Venezia FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 74¢ · $5K held · ended Sep 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$739.73
91.8¢ → 73.5¢
-20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 82.6¢ | $4.3K | $4.0K | -$366.25 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 82.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$265.82 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 28¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$100.43 | |
AR ARocky33 | Overavg 92¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$301.53 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
MA MartyMcFox | Overavg 92¢ | $184 | $147 | -$37 | 67% 4563-2290 (6853) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $11.38 | $11.31 | -$0.08 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $5.58 | $4.46 | -$1.12 | 56% 8924-7131 (16055) |
DR DreamwireCTR | Underavg 8¢ | $399.99 | — | -$399.99 | 82% 2995-642 (3637) |
Invested
$4,332.87
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$366.25
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,499.52
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$301.53
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
Invested
$184
Value
$147
PnL
-$37
Record
67%
4563-2290 (6853)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.38
Value
$11.31
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$4.46
PnL
-$1.12
Record
56%
8924-7131 (16055)
Invested
$399.99
Value
—
PnL
-$399.99
Record
82%
2995-642 (3637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.