Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): O/U 43.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 55¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 4

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

Total Value

$34.9K

Combined PnL

$197.4

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$33.9K

Total Shares61,402

Combined PnL+$186.83

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,224

Combined PnL+$10.57

Over — 90%Under — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Overavg 54¢	$21.0K	$21.2K	+$194.21	45% 89-111 (200)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 54¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$0	48% 276-299 (575)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 54¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$11.7	54% 17763-14926 (32689)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.57	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Overavg 53.7¢	$537.47	$540	+$2.53	53% 1074-946 (2020)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Overavg 54¢	$156.9	$156.28	-$0.62	53% 3157-2757 (5914)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$55.39	$56.7	+$1.31	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$52.75	$54	+$1.25	54% 906-787 (1693)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 55.7¢	$23.97	$23.44	-$0.53	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$16.35	$16.74	+$0.39	53% 916-813 (1729)

chubbytoro

Over

Invested

$20,974.38

Value

$21.2K

PnL

+$194.21

Record

45%

89-111 (200)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$5,977

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,923

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$11.7

Record

54%

17763-14926 (32689)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$1,001.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.57

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

TheComboConnoisseur

Over

Invested

$537.47

Value

$540

PnL

+$2.53

Record

53%

1074-946 (2020)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Over

Invested

$156.9

Value

$156.28

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

3157-2757 (5914)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$55.39

Value

$56.7

PnL

+$1.31

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$52.75

Value

$54

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$23.97

Value

$23.44

PnL

-$0.53

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$16.35

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.