Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Villarreal CF (64%) · Villarreal CF at 67¢ · $183K held · ends Nov 3

Paris Saint-Germain FC34¢Villarreal CF66¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Villarreal CF

Consensus Traders

Villarreal CF 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$183.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 66.5¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralVillarreal CF at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Villarreal CF

14 of 22 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC34%

Villarreal CF67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Villarreal CF14 traders

Total Value$119.2K

Total Shares180,159

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Paris Saint-Germain FC8 traders

Total Value$55.6K

Total Shares168,434

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Villarreal CF — 64%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Villarreal CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVillarreal CF 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpParis Saint-Germain FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVillarreal CF 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedVillarreal CF 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Villarreal CF 65% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Villarreal CFavg 67.1¢	$87.9K	$86.5K	$-1.4K	46% 8241-9613 (17854)
SI sinasinnerCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 34.1¢	$51.2K	$49.5K	$-1.7K	49% 36-38 (74)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Villarreal CFavg 66.5¢	$20.2K	$20.2K	-$14.54	48% 276-299 (575)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Villarreal CFavg 65.8¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	-$21.73	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
└ Villarreal CF leg	Villarreal CFavg 65.8¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$20.19
└ Paris Saint-Germain FC leg	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 33¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$41.92
LI LightParadox	Villarreal CFavg 63.6¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$143.62	54% 901-783 (1684)
LI Limousin	Villarreal CFavg 66.8¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$32.02	56% 935-734 (1669)
MA MadridTime	Villarreal CFavg 64¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$79.81	52% 825-766 (1591)
HI hi774c	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0	50% 4916-4829 (9745)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 36.8¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$259.77	64% 1845-1027 (2872)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 33.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$56.56	71% 6981-2790 (9771)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 33.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$44.47	50% 27272-27188 (54460)
VE Venusian	Villarreal CFavg 63.6¢	$877.51	$905.12	+$36.2	53% 913-807 (1720)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$263.99	$267.99	+$4	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 35¢	$496.11	$156.61	-$10.64	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
└ Paris Saint-Germain FC leg	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 35¢	$103.82	$99.42	+$12.77
└ Villarreal CF leg	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$56.76	$57.19	-$23.41
SN SnakeBall	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$146.46	$144.54	-$1.76	50% 35605-35075 (70680)
CA Cannae	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$121.43	$121.43	+$0	53% 16379-14547 (30926)
leflaiveCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 38¢	$114	$99	-$16.5	42% 1206-1642 (2848)
GH ghorrock	Villarreal CFavg 64.4¢	$203.9	$76.4	+$1.7	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 35.1¢	$38.29	$36.63	-$1.66	45% 13628-16553 (30181)
SE sentrio<$100	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$13.15	$13.35	+$0.2	50% 25241-24955 (50196)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Villarreal CFavg 61.5¢	$9.5	$9.9	+$0.5	52% 8449-7707 (16156)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 34¢	$9.69	$9.41	-$0.43	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 34.1¢	$9.21	$8.91	+$0.14	49% 3261-3353 (6614)
VeryLucky888	Villarreal CFavg 61.9¢	$499.1	$2.27	+$15.17	58% 44584-32454 (77038)

nigiri99

Villarreal CF

Invested

$87,909.34

Value

$86.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

46%

8241-9613 (17854)

sinasinnerCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$51,206.3

Value

$49.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

49%

36-38 (74)

Multicoloured-Serf

Villarreal CF

Invested

$20,222.72

Value

$20.2K

PnL

-$14.54

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$8,446.45

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$21.73

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

Both legs:

Villarreal CF$6,026.0765.8¢+$20.19

Paris Saint-Germain FC$2,458.9733¢-$41.92

LightParadox

Villarreal CF

Invested

$3,152.77

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$143.62

Record

54%

901-783 (1684)

Limousin

Villarreal CF

Invested

$2,716.9

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$32.02

Record

56%

935-734 (1669)

MadridTime

Villarreal CF

Invested

$2,524.71

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$79.81

Record

52%

825-766 (1591)

hi774c

Villarreal CF

Invested

$2,383.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

4916-4829 (9745)

darkumbreon88CTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$2,541.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$259.77

Record

64%

1845-1027 (2872)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$2,152.72

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$56.56

Record

71%

6981-2790 (9771)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$1,601.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$44.47

Record

50%

27272-27188 (54460)

Venusian

Villarreal CF

Invested

$877.51

Value

$905.12

PnL

+$36.2

Record

53%

913-807 (1720)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Villarreal CF

Invested

$263.99

Value

$267.99

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$496.11

Value

$156.61

PnL

-$10.64

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

Both legs:

Paris Saint-Germain FC$103.8235¢+$12.77

Villarreal CF$56.7666¢-$23.41

SnakeBall

Villarreal CF

Invested

$146.46

Value

$144.54

PnL

-$1.76

Record

50%

35605-35075 (70680)

Cannae

Villarreal CF

Invested

$121.43

Value

$121.43

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16379-14547 (30926)

leflaiveCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$114

Value

$99

PnL

-$16.5

Record

42%

1206-1642 (2848)

ghorrock

Villarreal CF

Invested

$203.9

Value

$76.4

PnL

+$1.7

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

suntoriCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$38.29

Value

$36.63

PnL

-$1.66

Record

45%

13628-16553 (30181)

sentrio<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$13.15

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

25241-24955 (50196)

ameisgoat11<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

8449-7707 (16156)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$9.21

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

3261-3353 (6614)

VeryLucky888

Villarreal CF

Invested

$499.1

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$15.17

Record

58%

44584-32454 (77038)

Research grade

NeutralVillarreal CF at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Villarreal CF

14 of 22 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Villarreal CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVillarreal CF 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpParis Saint-Germain FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVillarreal CF 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedVillarreal CF 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Villarreal CF 65% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Villarreal CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.