Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$149.6

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 98.7¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares12,233

Combined PnL+$168.66

No3 traders

Total Value$43.15

Total Shares2,877

Combined PnL-$19.06

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

677h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 98.3¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$5.37	77% 1408-416 (1824)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 91.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$143.99	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
elmcap2	Yesavg 97.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.38	89% 1665-205 (1870)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 98.4¢	$847.97	$847.98	+$0.02	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
OL OLOTH	Yesavg 97.7¢	$146.5	$147.6	+$1.25	96% 757-31 (788)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yes	$123.28	$123.28	+$9.4	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$27.38	$18.98	-$7.76	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
DZ dzsibenaja<$100	Yesavg 96.7¢	$15.64	$15.91	+$0.29	88% 171-24 (195)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$26.22	$14.32	-$9.14	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$12.34	$9.86	-$2.15	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 99.2¢	$4.96	$4.92	-$0.04	66% 1107-565 (1672)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$7,572.68

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$5.37

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$1,926.52

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$143.99

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$1,342.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.38

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$847.97

Value

$847.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

OLOTH

Yes

Invested

$146.5

Value

$147.6

PnL

+$1.25

Record

96%

757-31 (788)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$123.28

Value

$123.28

PnL

+$9.4

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$27.38

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$7.76

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

dzsibenaja<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.64

Value

$15.91

PnL

+$0.29

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$26.22

Value

$14.32

PnL

-$9.14

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$12.34

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$2.15

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$0.04

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

677h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.