Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$4.9K
$469.77
94.6¢ → 99.6¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
2960h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryxon21 | Yesavg 95¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$101.88 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
IM immanuelcan | Yes | $883.05 | $883.05 | +$82.35 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
 Talophex | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $560.95 | $566.6 | +$5.65 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
TH TheFOMCGambler | Yesavg 91¢ | $143.19 | $503.66 | +$232.2 | 76% 102-32 (134) |
OL OLOTH | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $338.21 | $338.47 | +$0.26 | 96% 757-31 (788) |
 LinaBell | Yesavg 86.1¢ | $157.35 | $321.02 | +$46.52 | 64% 1197-678 (1875) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 92.5¢ | $12.09 | $13 | +$0.91 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
Ryxon21Invested
$2,122.49
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$101.88
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
Invested
$883.05
Value
$883.05
PnL
+$82.35
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
TalophexInvested
$560.95
Value
$566.6
PnL
+$5.65
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Invested
$143.19
Value
$503.66
PnL
+$232.2
Record
76%
102-32 (134)
Invested
$338.21
Value
$338.47
PnL
+$0.26
Record
96%
757-31 (788)
LinaBellInvested
$157.35
Value
$321.02
PnL
+$46.52
Record
64%
1197-678 (1875)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$12.09
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.91
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.