Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 51% (126–121, n=247) · PM monthly #987 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.3K
Record
126W / 121L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 247 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1708
Source
PM monthly #987
Trades
132
Markets
288
Volume
$676.2K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $10K · now 77¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 31¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
242 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 34¢- Soccer
+56 pts
side won 96% of 26 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +46%
- MMA
+23 pts
side won 70% of 82 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +32%
- Tech
+19 pts
side won 36% of 11 · avg entry 17¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 17% of 41 at an average 24¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 42%(won 25% of 101)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 54% of 76)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 79% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.