Consensus PnL $219K · win rate 52% (69–63, n=132) · PM monthly #487 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$219.2K
Record
69W / 63L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 132 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1658
Source
PM monthly #487
Trades
279
Markets
172
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Raiders vs. JetsJets $2.4K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Raiders)
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Ravens $2.4K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5Over $2.4K · now 51¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Vikings $2.4K · now 53¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Lions)
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Cowboys $1.7K · now 56¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Cardinals)
- Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 44.5Over $1.2K · now 56¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
Specialties
156 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 47¢- NFL
+33 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +36%
- Tennis
+18 pts
side won 62% of 39 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +8%
- NBA
+10 pts
side won 52% of 23 · avg entry 42¢
ROI −11%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 44% of 32 at an average 48¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 16% of 25)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 52% of 56)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 73% of 66)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 67% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.