Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 44.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$6.2K
$51.86
55.2¢ → 56.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$31.92 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
ON Onomatopoeia777 | Overavg 56¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$10.93 | 48% 78-86 (164) |
BA Bagwell306 | Overavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10 | 58% 4067-2890 (6957) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $154 | $152.25 | -$1.75 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
NA NatoAlfista | Overavg 55¢ | $108.79 | $108.79 | -$0.99 | 50% 3947-3930 (7877) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $50.12 | $51.25 | +$1.14 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $27.28 | $27.9 | +$0.62 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$3,509.99
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$31.92
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$1,224.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$10.93
Record
48%
78-86 (164)
Invested
$1,099.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10
Record
58%
4067-2890 (6957)
Invested
$154
Value
$152.25
PnL
-$1.75
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$108.79
Value
$108.79
PnL
-$0.99
Record
50%
3947-3930 (7877)
Invested
$50.12
Value
$51.25
PnL
+$1.14
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$27.28
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$0.62
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.