Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 50¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$72.26

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares12,630

Combined PnL+$185.64

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,519

Combined PnL-$113.38

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 48¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$180	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Overavg 50.6¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$92.44	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$3.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$95.68
ON Onomatopoeia777	Overavg 53¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$112.5	48% 78-86 (164)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 51¢	$329.46	$326.23	-$3.23	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Underavg 48¢	$143.21	$302.57	+$5.64	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$84.35	$84.17	-$0.18	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$52.01	$51.5	-$0.51
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$32.34	$32.67	+$0.33
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 51¢	$77.01	$76.26	-$0.76	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 50¢	$56	$56.56	+$0.56	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$89.54	$55.46	+$2.54	58% 42700-31074 (73774)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$5,760

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$180

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,442.76

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$92.44

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

Both legs:

Over$2,643.8950.6¢-$3.24

Under$1,798.8747¢+$95.68

Onomatopoeia777

Over

Invested

$2,385

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

48%

78-86 (164)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$329.46

Value

$326.23

PnL

-$3.23

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

HerdoniaCTR

Under

Invested

$143.21

Value

$302.57

PnL

+$5.64

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$84.35

Value

$84.17

PnL

-$0.18

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

Both legs:

Invested

$77.01

Value

$76.26

PnL

-$0.76

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$56

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$89.54

Value

$55.46

PnL

+$2.54

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.