Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lions, while the market favors Vikings (53%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lions (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (57%) · Lions at 48¢ · $89K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
7
Lions 57%
$88.8K
-$147.88
48¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
123h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justwins | Vikingsavg 52¢ | $39.3K | $39.6K | +$377.59 | 50% 166-166 (332) |
WA wan123CTR | Lionsavg 48¢ | $24.0K | $23.8K | -$250 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
 PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR | Lionsavg 48¢ | $19.2K | $19.0K | -$199.91 | 53% 915-808 (1723) |
ON Onomatopoeia777 | Vikingsavg 53¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$22.5 | 48% 78-86 (164) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Lionsavg 49¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$60 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
HE Herdonia | Vikingsavg 52¢ | $785.93 | $1.1K | +$17.55 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Lionsavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $996.87 | -$10.6 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
Invested
$39,269.21
Value
$39.6K
PnL
+$377.59
Record
50%
166-166 (332)
Invested
$24,000
Value
$23.8K
PnL
-$250
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTRInvested
$19,199.91
Value
$19.0K
PnL
-$199.91
Record
53%
915-808 (1723)
Invested
$2,385
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$22.5
Record
48%
78-86 (164)
Invested
$1,960
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$60
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$785.93
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$17.55
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$1,018.08
Value
$996.87
PnL
-$10.6
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.