Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 6.3¢ · $63K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$62.9K

Combined PnL

$37.0K

Smart Money Entry

2¢ → 6.3¢

+218% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$56.6K

Total Shares772,574

Combined PnL+$36.3K

No2 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,884

Combined PnL+$726.52

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$8.3K	$24.3K	+$11.0K	39% 397-627 (1024)
BU button-clickerCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$685.69	$17.5K	+$16.8K	58% 161-116 (277)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$5.2K	$11.2K	+$6.0K	43% 561-738 (1299)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 93.2¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$39.55	63% 754-450 (1204)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$996.47	$2.5K	+$1.6K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$56.58	$877.82	+$821.24	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486	Noavg 93.8¢	$2.2K	$738.8	+$686.97	11% 20-165 (185)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$59.25	$194.95	+$135.7	51% 59-57 (116)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,254.78

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

button-clickerCTR

Yes

Invested

$685.69

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$16.8K

Record

58%

161-116 (277)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,173.49

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

P1kaso

Invested

$5,578.61

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$39.55

Record

63%

754-450 (1204)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$996.47

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$56.58

Value

$877.82

PnL

+$821.24

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486

Invested

$2,208.4

Value

$738.8

PnL

+$686.97

Record

11%

20-165 (185)

Siddhartha1CTR

Yes

Invested

$59.25

Value

$194.95

PnL

+$135.7

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.6%

6.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1218.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

1318.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.