Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 26-November 1?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$575.17

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 99.6¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares25,920

Combined PnL+$925.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$56.93

Total Shares14,868

Combined PnL-$350.06

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 96.4¢	$19.6K	$20.3K	+$669.4	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 94.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$110	76% 279-86 (365)
GE getbipped	Noavg 94.1¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$100.16	49% 208-213 (421)
Facaie	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.41	93% 1312-105 (1417)
PippiTrader	Noavg 87.6¢	$329.48	$374.92	+$45.26	61% 313-200 (513)
TI timetowanderCTR	Yesavg 5.1¢	$693.42	$22.04	+$146.54	40% 396-590 (986)
19 196874353278CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$161.64	$21.21	-$234.74	45% 212-263 (475)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$275.55	$13.68	-$261.87	62% 795-490 (1285)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$19,593.12

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$669.4

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,883

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$110

Record

76%

279-86 (365)

getbipped

Invested

$1,695.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$100.16

Record

49%

208-213 (421)

Facaie

Invested

$1,402.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.41

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

PippiTrader

Invested

$329.48

Value

$374.92

PnL

+$45.26

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

timetowanderCTR

Yes

Invested

$693.42

Value

$22.04

PnL

+$146.54

Record

40%

396-590 (986)

196874353278CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.64

Value

$21.21

PnL

-$234.74

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$275.55

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$261.87

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.