Consensus PnL $884K · win rate 54% (1021–878, n=1899) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$883.8K
Record
1021W / 878L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 1899 settled
Batting Avg
48.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1492
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
112,020
Markets
3,598
Volume
$37.7M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $6.2K · now 84¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 24¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
- Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?Yes $41 · now 26¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes $16 · now 82¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
Specialties
1,580 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+45 pts
side won 100% of 722 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +44%
- NHL
+43 pts
side won 100% of 148 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +39%
- NBA
+34 pts
side won 97% of 156 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 98% of 96)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 99% of 344)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 99% of 621)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 519)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.