Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 24¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$226.54

Smart Money Entry

21.3¢ → 23.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares13,402

Combined PnL+$297.97

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,815

Combined PnL-$71.43

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

286 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$16.08	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARDCTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$186.16	52% 1813-1663 (3476)
ColdW	Noavg 77¢	$1.0K	$981.72	-$6.54	61% 2021-1298 (3319)
MA Marioy	Noavg 82¢	$932.34	$852.75	-$62.53	81% 250-58 (308)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 74.3¢	$229.5	$225	-$4.5	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
StudyPredictionCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$144.3	$216.44	+$67.64	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
PA para-VisionCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$95.39	$101.89	+$6.5	56% 219-174 (393)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$47.77	$76.66	+$21.59	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$34.66	$37.08	+$2.42	50% 7330-7454 (14784)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 79¢	$11.29	$10.71	-$0.36	72% 1535-585 (2120)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.68	$3.75	+$0.07	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$1.01	$1.01	+$0.01	51% 2516-2391 (4907)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,380.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$16.08

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARDCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,193.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$186.16

Record

52%

1813-1663 (3476)

ColdW

Invested

$1,007.9

Value

$981.72

PnL

-$6.54

Record

61%

2021-1298 (3319)

Marioy

Invested

$932.34

Value

$852.75

PnL

-$62.53

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$229.5

Value

$225

PnL

-$4.5

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

StudyPredictionCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.3

Value

$216.44

PnL

+$67.64

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

para-VisionCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.39

Value

$101.89

PnL

+$6.5

Record

56%

219-174 (393)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.77

Value

$76.66

PnL

+$21.59

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

jakepaulthegoat2008<$100

Invested

$34.66

Value

$37.08

PnL

+$2.42

Record

50%

7330-7454 (14784)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$11.29

Value

$10.71

PnL

-$0.36

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.07

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

merod<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

286 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.