Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 82¢ · $66K held · ends Dec 31
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
22
Yes 77%
$65.8K
$393.67
68.8¢ → 81.5¢
+18% since entry · 17 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 82%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
17 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
77% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE denizz | Yesavg 66.1¢ | $18.4K | $22.5K | +$4.1K | 68% 597-284 (881) |
NO nonkenny90 | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $11.3K | $11.4K | +$163.32 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 SirHarryOakes | Yesavg 83.5¢ | $8.6K | $8.4K | -$204.63 | 84% 215-41 (256) |
 Valen9 | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $4.6K | $6.4K | +$1.8K | 60% 407-274 (681) |
 SwissMiss | Yesavg 48.1¢ | $3.1K | $5.3K | +$2.2K | 66% 476-245 (721) |
MI MissaoComFlavio | Yesavg 81.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$4.74 | 75% 234-77 (311) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Noavg 61.2¢ | $6.7K | $2.4K | $-5.6K | 54% 1249-1044 (2293) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR | Noavg 39.5¢ | $3.7K | $1.8K | $-1.9K | 62% 649-396 (1045) |
EA Eatpraylove | Yesavg 78.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$42.5 | 57% 766-585 (1351) |
 WongKimArk | Yesavg 72¢ | $720 | $815 | +$95 | 63% 217-127 (344) |
 MEPP | Yesavg 61¢ | $460.9 | $616.03 | +$155.13 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
 ChungvicularCTR | Noavg 38.5¢ | $1.2K | $576.03 | -$621.49 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
 Warren-Buffett | Yesavg 71.2¢ | $422.68 | $483.74 | +$61.07 | 65% 862-465 (1327) |
 classifiedCTR | Noavg 16.3¢ | $417.52 | $474.94 | +$57.41 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
 TheKinginYellow | Yesavg 75¢ | $243 | $264.07 | +$21.06 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 studmuffin6969 | Yesavg 81¢ | $199.17 | $200.4 | +$1.23 | 59% 1027-717 (1744) |
 Optimus- | Yesavg 55¢ | $115.44 | $171.06 | +$55.62 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
 Porx | Yesavg 67.2¢ | $163.99 | $162.99 | -$1 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $56.26 | $57.41 | +$1.15 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $36.53 | $48.92 | +$12.39 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
TT tttt123CTR<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $58 | $18.5 | -$39.5 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $7.6 | $16.3 | +$8.7 | 52% 1813-1663 (3476) |
Invested
$18,423.25
Value
$22.5K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
68%
597-284 (881)
Invested
$11,277.99
Value
$11.4K
PnL
+$163.32
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
SirHarryOakesInvested
$8,608.74
Value
$8.4K
PnL
-$204.63
Record
84%
215-41 (256)
Valen9Invested
$4,567.43
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
60%
407-274 (681)
SwissMissInvested
$3,121.35
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
66%
476-245 (721)
Invested
$2,490
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$4.74
Record
75%
234-77 (311)
Invested
$6,660.44
Value
$2.4K
PnL
$-5.6K
Record
54%
1249-1044 (2293)
Roflan-ludomanCTRInvested
$3,673.75
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
62%
649-396 (1045)
Invested
$1,179.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$42.5
Record
57%
766-585 (1351)
WongKimArkInvested
$720
Value
$815
PnL
+$95
Record
63%
217-127 (344)
MEPPInvested
$460.9
Value
$616.03
PnL
+$155.13
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
ChungvicularCTRInvested
$1,197.52
Value
$576.03
PnL
-$621.49
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
Warren-BuffettInvested
$422.68
Value
$483.74
PnL
+$61.07
Record
65%
862-465 (1327)
classifiedCTRInvested
$417.52
Value
$474.94
PnL
+$57.41
Record
58%
844-614 (1458)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$243
Value
$264.07
PnL
+$21.06
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
studmuffin6969Invested
$199.17
Value
$200.4
PnL
+$1.23
Record
59%
1027-717 (1744)
Optimus-Invested
$115.44
Value
$171.06
PnL
+$55.62
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
PorxInvested
$163.99
Value
$162.99
PnL
-$1
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Invested
$56.26
Value
$57.41
PnL
+$1.15
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$36.53
Value
$48.92
PnL
+$12.39
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$58
Value
$18.5
PnL
-$39.5
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
$16.3
PnL
+$8.7
Record
52%
1813-1663 (3476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.