Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.0K
$226.48
57.9¢ → 74.5¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
4877h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
84 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 68.3¢ | $296.96 | $317.51 | +$20.54 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $109.42 | $214.43 | +$105.12 | 43% 1401-1820 (3221) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $167.83 | $149 | -$18.83 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 Gohst | Noavg 22.3¢ | $44 | $147.22 | +$103.22 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
FU FulguratorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $59.02 | $87.51 | +$28.49 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $16.13 | $54.64 | +$38.5 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $100 | $47.22 | -$52.78 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100 | No | $8 | $4.26 | +$2.2 | 45% 3593-4351 (7944) |
Invested
$296.96
Value
$317.51
PnL
+$20.54
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$109.42
Value
$214.43
PnL
+$105.12
Record
43%
1401-1820 (3221)
Invested
$167.83
Value
$149
PnL
-$18.83
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
GohstInvested
$44
Value
$147.22
PnL
+$103.22
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
Invested
$59.02
Value
$87.51
PnL
+$28.49
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
2B9S<$100Invested
$16.13
Value
$54.64
PnL
+$38.5
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$100
Value
$47.22
PnL
-$52.78
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$8
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$2.2
Record
45%
3593-4351 (7944)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.