Consensus PnL $351K · win rate 69% (209–93, n=302) · PM monthly #325 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$350.6K
Record
209W / 93L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 302 settled
Batting Avg
34.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#789
Source
PM monthly #325
Trades
1,506
Markets
384
Volume
$7.2M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 5 on the consensus side (80%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $53K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes $21K · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $19K · now 59¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $14K · now 59¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (44% of 16)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $12K · now 84¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (72% of 48)
Specialties
299 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 72¢- MLB
+36 pts
side won 88% of 17 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +40%
- Elections
+11 pts
side won 78% of 76 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +4%
- Soccer
+22 pts
side won 92% of 13 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +13%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 74% of 42 at an average 76¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 12% of 26)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 68% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 76% of 51)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 95% of 191)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.