Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 91¢ · $72K held · ends Nov 4

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$71.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$71.3K

Total Shares78,380

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No4 traders

Total Value$211.93

Total Shares2,231

Combined PnL+$18.03

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4149h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Yesavg 89¢	$40.0K	$21.6K	+$900	43% 561-738 (1299)
RO Ronaldo2100	Yesavg 90.5¢	$20.9K	$21.1K	+$4.73	46% 211-246 (457)
FA faceverification	Yesavg 89.2¢	$14.9K	$15.2K	+$217.81	66% 19-10 (29)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 89.6¢	$7.8K	$7.2K	+$69.36	89% 4652-547 (5199)
perfectnostalgia	Yesavg 90.5¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$0	55% 338-273 (611)
StarMaster	Yesavg 91¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 79.4¢	$656.11	$770.48	+$93.93	76% 102-32 (134)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 91¢	$617.54	$617.54	-$3.39	85% 311-57 (368)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 82.2¢	$202.16	$222.34	+$20.18	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
LE legioncreCTR	Noavg 10¢	$197.1	$187.25	-$9.86	— 10-4 (14)
DE dedidanc<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$41.72	$50.96	+$9.24	57% 103-77 (180)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 10.3¢	$72.74	$13.3	+$25.94	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$6.45	$7.68	+$1.72	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 8.9¢	$3.49	$3.71	+$0.22	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

BreakTheBank

Yes

Invested

$40,050

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$900

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

Ronaldo2100

Yes

Invested

$20,949.4

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$4.73

Record

46%

211-246 (457)

faceverification

Yes

Invested

$14,865.29

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$217.81

Record

66%

19-10 (29)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$7,766.29

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$69.36

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

perfectnostalgia

Yes

Invested

$2,715

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$1,820

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$656.11

Value

$770.48

PnL

+$93.93

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$617.54

Value

$617.54

PnL

-$3.39

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$202.16

Value

$222.34

PnL

+$20.18

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

legioncreCTR

Invested

$197.1

Value

$187.25

PnL

-$9.86

Record

—

10-4 (14)

dedidanc<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.72

Value

$50.96

PnL

+$9.24

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$72.74

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$25.94

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$1.72

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 91%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4149h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.8%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.