2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
54 of 74 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $1.8M held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
74
No 73%
$1.8M
$-21.0K
91.5¢ → 95.5¢
+4% since entry · 54 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
54 of 74 top traders (73%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
54 traders
Top 2 hold 36%
Freshness
Late
4873h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SL SlavaUkraini | Noavg 91¢ | $335.5K | $320.4K | +$15.2K | 71% 160-66 (226) |
XR xrr67 | Noavg 93¢ | $295.9K | $305.5K | +$8.0K | — 8-1 (9) |
SC schizohedgehog | Noavg 89.5¢ | $156.2K | $167.5K | +$10.4K | 80% 48-12 (60) |
FL FlyingPlaty | Noavg 90.8¢ | $130.2K | $137.6K | +$6.7K | 98% 982-16 (998) |
 tourists | Noavg 90.5¢ | $99.6K | $105.6K | +$5.5K | 66% 427-222 (649) |
BU burrito338 | Noavg 92¢ | $100.5K | $104.9K | +$3.8K | 92% 88-8 (96) |
AN Andylow5CTR | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $141.8K | $90.9K | $-60.0K | — 1-0 (1) |
 scottilicious | Noavg 91.1¢ | $83.8K | $88.3K | +$4.1K | 82% 945-201 (1146) |
 Valen9 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $67.1K | $70.1K | +$2.6K | 60% 406-274 (680) |
RO Ronaldo2100 | Noavg 94¢ | $55.6K | $53.1K | +$833.32 | 46% 211-246 (457) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 92¢ | $41.7K | $39.8K | +$1.5K | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
PW pwnatorul | Noavg 92.7¢ | $34.3K | $35.5K | +$1.0K | 85% 23-4 (27) |
VI Vilgefortz | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2K | $28.8K | +$450 | 71% 196-82 (278) |
FO Folletin | Noavg 92¢ | $25.2K | $26.3K | +$968.94 | 69% 423-188 (611) |
 Tigerofthehood | Noavg 90.8¢ | $23.9K | $24.0K | +$125.02 | 87% 179-26 (205) |
 tetrase | Noavg 90.6¢ | $18.8K | $19.7K | +$854.85 | 61% 839-543 (1382) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 94¢ | $18.0K | $18.3K | +$285.98 | 97% 2582-68 (2650) |
PL plumbis | Noavg 91.8¢ | $15.1K | $15.7K | +$621.53 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 90.3¢ | $14.5K | $15.3K | +$833.34 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
FA faceverification | Noavg 94¢ | $14.6K | $14.9K | +$233.33 | 66% 19-10 (29) |
HI hideo | Noavg 85.2¢ | $13.0K | $14.7K | +$1.6K | 76% 253-81 (334) |
PA Paul973973 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $10.0K | $10.3K | +$284.9 | 89% 923-118 (1041) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 88¢ | $9.2K | $10.0K | +$782.15 | 94% 411-26 (437) |
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant | Noavg 92¢ | $9.2K | $9.6K | +$350 | 55% 78-65 (143) |
 bullishkirbyCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $15.9K | $9.2K | $-7.6K | 64% 93-52 (145) |
Invested
$335,466.15
Value
$320.4K
PnL
+$15.2K
Record
71%
160-66 (226)
Invested
$295,943.7
Value
$305.5K
PnL
+$8.0K
Record
—
8-1 (9)
Invested
$156,229.41
Value
$167.5K
PnL
+$10.4K
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$130,204.58
Value
$137.6K
PnL
+$6.7K
Record
98%
982-16 (998)
touristsInvested
$99,599.96
Value
$105.6K
PnL
+$5.5K
Record
66%
427-222 (649)
Invested
$100,501.17
Value
$104.9K
PnL
+$3.8K
Record
92%
88-8 (96)
Invested
$141,795.54
Value
$90.9K
PnL
$-60.0K
Record
—
1-0 (1)
scottiliciousInvested
$83,831.34
Value
$88.3K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
82%
945-201 (1146)
Valen9Invested
$67,068.37
Value
$70.1K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
60%
406-274 (680)
Invested
$55,554.99
Value
$53.1K
PnL
+$833.32
Record
46%
211-246 (457)
0xheavy888Invested
$41,684.84
Value
$39.8K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$34,310
Value
$35.5K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$28,200
Value
$28.8K
PnL
+$450
Record
71%
196-82 (278)
Invested
$25,213.73
Value
$26.3K
PnL
+$968.94
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
TigerofthehoodInvested
$23,874.98
Value
$24.0K
PnL
+$125.02
Record
87%
179-26 (205)
tetraseInvested
$18,849.98
Value
$19.7K
PnL
+$854.85
Record
61%
839-543 (1382)
Invested
$18,016.81
Value
$18.3K
PnL
+$285.98
Record
97%
2582-68 (2650)
Invested
$15,125.84
Value
$15.7K
PnL
+$621.53
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
Invested
$14,498.43
Value
$15.3K
PnL
+$833.34
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
Invested
$14,621.7
Value
$14.9K
PnL
+$233.33
Record
66%
19-10 (29)
Invested
$13,040.09
Value
$14.7K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
76%
253-81 (334)
Invested
$10,000
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$284.9
Record
89%
923-118 (1041)
Invested
$9,176.95
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$782.15
Record
94%
411-26 (437)
Invested
$9,200
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$350
Record
55%
78-65 (143)
bullishkirbyCTRInvested
$15,871.67
Value
$9.2K
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
64%
93-52 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.