Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

34 of 47 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (72%) · Yes at 84¢ · $310K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$310.0K

Combined PnL

$101.1K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 84¢

+50% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 84%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

34 of 47 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes34 traders

Total Value$308.2K

Total Shares365,856

Combined PnL+$103.2K

No13 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares8,169

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Yes — 72%No — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

34 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

245 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

72% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 20

Aligned

sharpYes 81% · 16

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 64% · 28

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 74% · 31

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 76.4¢	$68.6K	$75.6K	+$6.9K	38% 20-32 (52)
PK pkz	Yesavg 35.9¢	$2.4K	$29.7K	+$21.1K	57% 468-346 (814)
DE denizz	Yesavg 50.1¢	$17.3K	$28.3K	+$11.1K	68% 597-284 (881)
tetrase	Yesavg 56.8¢	$18.2K	$28.1K	+$9.9K	61% 839-543 (1382)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 4.9¢	$1.7K	$27.3K	+$25.6K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f	Yesavg 48.5¢	$12.6K	$21.8K	+$9.2K	79% 332-89 (421)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 60.9¢	$10.9K	$13.5K	+$2.6K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
RO Ronaldo2100	Yesavg 79.8¢	$11.5K	$12.2K	+$616.57	46% 211-246 (457)
yen4u	Yesavg 35.8¢	$3.9K	$10.0K	+$5.7K	86% 807-136 (943)
GO gokol	Yesavg 85.4¢	$8.8K	$9.4K	+$634.94	71% 15-6 (21)
SK skibabiba	Yesavg 79.7¢	$7.2K	$7.6K	+$391.53	87% 95-14 (109)
ST stupid22	Yesavg 75.3¢	$6.8K	$6.5K	+$796.03	94% 411-26 (437)
Car	Yesavg 33.7¢	$6.1K	$6.4K	+$319.5	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
MEPP	Yesavg 72.1¢	$4.5K	$5.9K	+$1.4K	64% 632-352 (984)
studmuffin6969	Yesavg 22.2¢	$1.3K	$5.1K	+$3.7K	59% 1027-717 (1744)
siick	Yesavg 68.9¢	$4.1K	$4.7K	+$602.96	57% 767-580 (1347)
FA faceverification	Yesavg 82.7¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$78.56	66% 19-10 (29)
PA pako	Yesavg 36.7¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$846.33	65% 250-132 (382)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 82.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$30.67	89% 4652-547 (5199)
0x8712	Yesavg 84.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$12	30% 102-237 (339)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 45.2¢	$637.01	$1.1K	+$463.47	67% 751-378 (1129)
The-Joker	Yesavg 60.4¢	$668.91	$933.59	+$261.91	68% 1507-701 (2208)
WongKimArk	Yesavg 53.2¢	$532	$843	+$309	63% 217-127 (344)
Udonsan	Yesavg 84.4¢	$623.27	$621.29	-$1.98	79% 247-66 (313)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 69.3¢	$1.4K	$599.65	+$166.56	76% 11352-3524 (14876)