Consensus PnL $97K · win rate 88% (128–17, n=145) · was PM monthly #982 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$97.2K
Record
128W / 17L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 145 settled
Batting Avg
55.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#273
Source
PM monthly #982
Trades
289
Markets
202
Volume
$21.7M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $3.7K · now 66¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Yes $716 · now 98¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes $479 · now 68¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (42% of 13)
Specialties
163 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 79¢- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 84% of 62 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +6%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 95¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 85% of 47 at an average 86¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 6% of 16)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 62% of 13)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 69% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 72%(won 100% of 118)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.