Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 68¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 4

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$328.16

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 67.5¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares11,704

Combined PnL-$233.76

Yes5 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares9,269

Combined PnL+$561.92

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

244h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$3.4K	$2.9K	-$354.8	79% 332-89 (421)
AN anoin123	Yesavg 69.2¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$94.9	47% 474-534 (1008)
Nadmi	Yesavg 39.7¢	$981.94	$1.6K	+$657.57	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 67.4¢	$432.41	$700.97	-$37.54	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 66¢	$549.77	$566.43	+$8.33	58% 705-521 (1226)
ChungvicularCTR	Noavg 28¢	$482.08	$550.95	+$86.09	46% 49-57 (106)
SmallFishInWhaleStomach	Yesavg 63¢	$443.22	$478.72	+$28.46	83% 123-26 (149)
aenews2CTR	Noavg 31¢	$100.44	$106.92	+$6.48	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 32.1¢	$233.64	$95.25	+$18.13	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 31.3¢	$64	$64	+$0	57% 3068-2356 (5424)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Yesavg 68.2¢	$61.26	$62.77	+$1.51	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.2¢	$42.79	$42.68	+$5.81
└ No leg	Noavg 32.5¢	$20.41	$20.09	-$4.3
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$14.9	$24.48	+$10.35	53% 1560-1362 (2922)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Invested

$3,352.42

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$354.8

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$2,969.11

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$94.9

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Nadmi

Yes

Invested

$981.94

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$657.57

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$432.41

Value

$700.97

PnL

-$37.54

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$549.77

Value

$566.43

PnL

+$8.33

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

ChungvicularCTR

Invested

$482.08

Value

$550.95

PnL

+$86.09

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

SmallFishInWhaleStomach

Yes

Invested

$443.22

Value

$478.72

PnL

+$28.46

Record

83%

123-26 (149)

aenews2CTR

Invested

$100.44

Value

$106.92

PnL

+$6.48

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$233.64

Value

$95.25

PnL

+$18.13

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$64

Value

$64

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.26

Value

$62.77

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Both legs:

Yes$42.7968.2¢+$5.81

No$20.4132.5¢-$4.3

cowcatCTR<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$10.35

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

244h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.4%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.