Consensus PnL $137K · win rate 50% (258–260, n=518) · hand-picked wallet · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$136.6K
Record
258W / 260L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 518 settled
Batting Avg
60.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1754
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
35,769
Markets
1,248
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?No $12K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?No $5.8K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
996 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 64¢- Culture
+3 pts
side won 36% of 83 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 50% of 74 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +3%
- Tech
+4 pts
side won 58% of 65 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 31% of 70 at an average 46¢ entry (−15 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 4% of 286)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 30% of 54)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 51% of 49)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 95% of 607)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.